Scurvy Knaves Will Try To Invade Petco: Pads vs. Pirates Pitching Preview

By Bob Scanlan

“Yo ho, yo ho, a Pirates life for me!” I loved the Pirates of the Caribbean ride at Disneyland when I was a kid. OK, so I still love it…doesn’t make me a bad person. But I don’t want to see the Pittsburgh Pirates come in and “Pillage and plunder, rifle and loot” the Padres, especially in their home pueblo.

The Pads are still looking for their first series win and may be catching a Buccos team that was expected to compete for the N.L. Central at the right time.

It’s not always who you play, but when you play them. And the Pirates, although on a modest 2-game winning streak, have dropped 6 of their last 9. Let’s take a look at the pitching matchups.

GAME #1 – Rea vs. Liriano

• Colin Rea – As we predicted, Colin rebounded from a lackluster opening start in Colorado to post a very solid 7 IP, 1 ER outing against the Phillies. He got back to being the strike thrower we saw last year, using the entire repertoire to induce 12 ground balls. He’s never faced anyone on the PIT roster, so advantage Rea for unfamiliarity. However, the Pirates have hit right-handed pitching better than any other lineup in the NL at a .300 clip, and their .384 team OBP is best in MLB against righties. Interestingly it’s not because they have a left-hand hitting dominant lineup, with only John Jaso and Gregory Polanco swinging from the left side each night. That likely means Rea, who’s had some issues  versus RHB’s so far (.304 AVG., .385 OBP. 1.037 OPS) will need to consistently get his cutter and curve to the outside corner to widen the plate against the right-hand dominant lineup he will likely see.
• Francisco Liriano – The veteran lefty has had success against the Pads in 6 career outings, posting a 2.13 ERA with 49 strikeouts and only 23 hits in 38 IP. He features fastball, slider, changeup and in general stays away with all of them. As a hitter, I would hunt for mistakes away on fastballs and back door sliders early until he shows he will come in. He has dominated lefties so far this season, having not allowed a hit to one yet in 13 plate appearances, while righties have notched a .429 OBP elevated in large part to 7 walks issued. He doesn’t make many 2-strike mistakes, and looks to get ahead early. Hitters have 63% of their hits coming the first pitch of the at-bat, so walk up ready to swing because your best pitch will likely come early, with no mercy if you fall behind.

GAME #2 – Pomeranz vs. Locke

• Drew Pomeranz – Drew was the tough luck loser in his last effort, going 6 strong innings allowing just 3 hits and 2 runs, but was outgunned by Vince Velasquez, who struck out 16 Friars on his way to a shutout. For the second outing in a row, though, Pomeranz showed he’s more equipped than at any point in his career to be a guy that can give you innings and get through a lineup 3 times. Small sample size proof so far is that only 1 of the 9 batters he’s faced a third time has reached base. His offspeed pitches are better and the results speak for themselves. He used to throw 70% fastballs, but this year so far only 52% of his offerings have been the No. 1, while his curveball usage has increased from 30% to 40% with the changeup also being used twice as often as in previous campaigns. Only time will tell if the league adjusts, but he clearly has more confidence in the weapons at his disposal. Very little history with this lineup, except for David Freese, who’s only 2-for-11 (.182) lifetime.
• Jeff Locke – Nicknamed by his teammates “The Intern” because he looks like one walking through the clubhouse with his slight physique, the veteran lefty is the antithesis of Liriano in his pitching style. While Liriano lives away to right-hand batters until he’s forced to come in, Locke is coming in-in-in with his fastball and then tries to drop the breaking ball on the outside corner. He also has a changeup that usually doesn’t fade from righties but cuts straight down instead. He’s only faced the Padres twice in his career and was pummeled both times. In 9 innings of career work he’s been torched for 15 hits and 10 earned runs – ouch! Matt Kemp (.571), Christian Bethancourt (.500), Jon Jay (.333), and even lefty Brett Wallace (.600) will all pitch in for the limousine to make sure Locke gets to the ballpark in time. So far Locke has a nice ERA at 2.53, but that doesn’t tell the whole story. His WHIP is a bloated 1.97 in large part to 9 walks issued in 10 IP, 7 of those surrendered in his last outing. Suffice it to say that the Pads will want to make him prove he can throw strikes.

GAME #3 – Shields vs. Cole

• James Shields – He threw the ball much better in his last outing, lasting 7 innings and allowing only 2 ER against the D’Backs. He had great success against the Buccos last season in two starts, allowing only 11 base runners and 2 ER in 13 innings of work. There’s no one in the current lineup that’s had any significant success against him with the lot of them combining for a .138 BAA and 1 HR in 65 AB. Command to the glove side part of the plate will once again likely determine James’ fate, especially against a righty lineup that will demand command low and away.
• Gerrit Cole – A rib injury caused him to get a late start in spring training and to miss a start in the opening week, but he’s back and coming off a solid outing versus the Tigers. Fastball that can reach 96-98, slider, curve and changeup are what he normally brings to the mound with him each night. The fastball velocity has a tendency to fade as the game goes on, sometimes significantly to 89-91 toward the 95+ pitch mark, and he uses it in a lot to LHBs early. His slider is late and sharp and he’ll use it to finish off both righties and lefties. The second time through the lineup he starts showing the curve which generally is not really late or nasty, and a changeup that is just an average offering as well. It’s only been two outings but he’s had trouble so far working out of the stretch, permitting a .357 BAA and .438 OBP with runners on. Jay has faced him the most of any current Friar, and has successfully reached base against him at a .467 clip, so he could be instrumental early if he can reach base to force Cole to work out of what has been the uncomfortable stretch position so far in the early part of this season.

Thanks to some good timing and with some good efforts from the starters, the Pads could be in position to take their first series of the season and Friar fans everywhere can all “Drink up me ‘earties, yo ho!”